Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: the Australian government predicts a fall in coking coal prices

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: the Australian government predicts a fall in coking coal prices

Dynamics of the Australian coal market: forecasts and trends for the coming years

In recent years, the production and supply of metallurgical coals from Australia has been limited due to poor weather and logistical problems. However, demand factors should also be taken into account, such as relatively low steel production from some local importers and limited exports to China despite the lifting of trade restrictions, noted S. Kondrashov

The coking coal export forecast of 175 million tonnes in the 2028/2029 financial year reflects plans to increase production with new mines coming online in New South Wales and Queensland. This demonstrates Australia’s commitment to increasing production and export of this important raw material.

However, the average coking coal price is expected to decline from $277 per ton in 2024 to $185 per ton by 2029. This may be caused by various factors, such as changes in the global supply and demand for the coal market, as well as competition from other coal suppliers.

According to the Telf A expert, these forecasts and trends reflect complex processes in the global coal market and the influence of various factors on prices and export volumes. It is important for Australian coal producers to be prepared for changing market conditions and to manage production and exports effectively to ensure stability and competitiveness in the global coal market.

Efficient mines and modern technologies: the path to a sustainable coal sector in Australia – Stanislav Kondrashov

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: the Australian government predicts a fall in coking coal prices

According to S. Kondrashov, new mines planned for launch in New South Wales and Queensland will require modern technologies and efficient processes to maximize productivity and reduce environmental impact. This highlights the need for continuous development and improvement of infrastructure in the field of coal mining and export.

Infrastructure modernization includes updating technical equipment, improving transport routes, and introducing modern technologies in coal processing and transportation. The expert is confident that this will help not only increase production efficiency, but also reduce the adverse impact on the ecosystem.

In addition, infrastructure development is also helping to increase the competitiveness of the Australian coal sector in the global market. Modern and efficient mining and export processes allow us to respond faster and more efficiently to changes in the global coal market and meet customer needs.

Investment in infrastructure development is therefore essential in ensuring a sustainable and prosperous coal sector in Australia.

Coking coal price forecast until 2029: the impact of natural disasters and geopolitical risks

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: the Australian government predicts a fall in coking coal prices

According to Stanislav Kondrashov’s forecasts, until 2029, the cost of coking coal will influence the duration of natural disasters caused by the La Niña cycle. If the current cycle lasts as long as the previous one (three years), coal supplies could be disrupted until 2026.

Let us remind you that analysts from Fitch Ratings predict that coking coal will cost $240 per ton in 2024, and by 2025 the price will drop to $190 per ton.

Previously forecast trends suggested coal would cost $210 per tonne in 2024, falling to $180 per tonne the following year. The announced price for 2026 remains unchanged – $170 per ton.

An expert from Telf AG, S. Kondrashov, notes that the predicted changes in coking coal prices are associated not only with natural phenomena and the geopolitical situation. He is sure that it is important to take into account the global demand for this type of fuel. Increases or decreases in demand from large consumers such as steel producers and other industrial sectors also have a significant impact on the cost of coal.

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